Are the pull rates real?

Yes. Each rarity weight is modeled on community-reported pull rate aggregates across tens of thousands of pack breaks. We cite ranges for modern sets where the manufacturer does not publish official odds.

Is pack EV the same as pack price?

Rarely. Most booster packs carry a negative expected value — the distribution is long-tailed. The median pull underperforms MSRP; a handful of chase cards carry the aggregate EV. The simulator renders both per-pack and per-box to surface that tail risk.

Why are there no loot boxes here?

This is a simulator and a data tool. Nothing is for sale here. No loot boxes, no spin mechanics, no real-money gambling UI. Rip a virtual pack, see the math, close the tab.

Pack Opening Simulator — Pokémon, MTG, Yu-Gi-Oh, One Piece, Lorcana

/METHODOLOGY

HOW THIS WORKS.

A trading card booster pack is a structured lottery. Every slot has a published or inferred probability distribution — common, uncommon, rare, and the escalating hologram / full-art / secret rare tiers that modern sets have proliferated. The Archive Drops pack opening simulator takes that slot structure, applies community-reported pull rate weights, and renders the outcome with honest numbers attached. We do not simulate near-misses. We do not simulate "pity." We do not hide the odds.

WHAT THE SIMULATOR MODELS

Each set definition includes the official cards-per-pack count, a slot table (for example, 5 commons + 3 uncommons + 2 rare-or-better in a modern Pokémon booster), and a weighted rarity table. When you hit CRACK IT, the app iterates through the slot table and samples a random card from the rarity pool. The rare-or-better slot uses a secondary weighted roll that allows an upgrade up the rarity pyramid — which is the exact mechanism the printer uses to deliver the occasional Special Art Rare or Mythic Rare without making the set feel deterministic.

WHY PULL RATES DIVERGE FROM MARKETING

Modern Pokémon sets advertise a roughly 1-in-3 chance of hitting a "hit" card at the Ultra Rare tier or above. That number obscures the underlying distribution. The actual split is closer to 3% Ultra Rare, 1.5% Illustration Rare, 0.5% Special Art Rare. Magic: The Gathering draft boosters print 10% rare, 3% mythic. Yu-Gi-Oh varies wildly by set — the 25th Anniversary Rarity Collection printed at roughly 1% Secret Rare. Lorcana's Enchanted cards land near 0.5%. One Piece alternate-art rares land around 1%. These are the numbers the simulator uses.

WHAT PACK EV ACTUALLY MEANS

Expected value is the weighted average of outcomes. For a pack, it is the sum of (probability × market price) across every possible card in the pool. For modern Prismatic Evolutions, the simulator estimates pack EV between $8 and $12 depending on Umbreon ex market movement — which is compared against a retail pack price of $10. A positive EV delta does not mean every pack prints money; it means the long-run average clears cost. Roughly 70% of packs will underperform. A small number will pay for everything.

DATA SOURCES

Card market values are sourced from TCGplayer and Scryfall. Pull rate weights are aggregated from community-reported pack breaks — PokéBeach, Reddit r/pkmntcg case breaks, YouTube case-opener spreadsheets for Magic, and Konami's own rarity statements where available. We do not claim manufacturer precision. We claim transparency and recency.

WHAT THIS IS NOT

This is not a loot box. Nothing is for sale through the simulator. There is no purchase, no escalation prompt, no spend button, no near-miss animation designed to trigger another rip. You click, the pack rips, you see the math. If the math is unkind — which it often is — the simulator tells you.

USING THE SIMULATOR FOR RESEARCH

A useful workflow: rip 36 packs (a sealed booster box equivalent) on the set you are considering. Compare total value to retail box price. Run three or four simulated boxes to see variance. A single box can deliver a chase card that returns 4× cost, or — more likely — deliver zero chase cards and return 60–80% of MSRP. Both outcomes are real. Box buying is variance trading.

WHERE THE ODDS BREAK DOWN

Modern TCGs have stopped publishing explicit pull rates for premium rarities. Pokémon has not published an official rate card since Sword & Shield. MTG shares raw per-slot probabilities but not the distribution inside the rare slot. The simulator uses community estimates aggregated across 50k+ reported pulls per set, refreshed on set launch and re-calibrated quarterly. If the numbers here diverge from your real-world experience, read the footer citations on each page — the data is not manufacturer-grade. It is the best publicly available estimate.

NEXT STEPS

Head to the pull rates hub for per-game deep dives. Browse booster box analysis for box-level EV math. If you are considering grading your hit, the grading guides walk through the PSA, BGS, and CGC trade-offs. And if you want a notification when the next Archive Drops limited-run set review hits, the drops page has a waitlist.

PACK OPENINGSIMULATOR.